Early days of steam ships passing through the Suez Canal.
Unintended consequences:
The Ever Given metaphor
Verizon Payment Security Report — 2022
Written by Cynthia B. Hanson
The opening paragraph of the 2020 PSR mentions that while data security is a complex problem, it need not be complicated. In response, readers asked for additional guidance on what they specifically need to do to assess the complexity, and on how to reveal and reduce the complicated interrelations between the components of their control environment. They requested a strategic approach to data security and compliance, a method to help them decide what to focus on, ways to determine what to aim for (goals and objectives) and post-implementation methods to measure success. This PSR focuses on Verizon’s “True North” answers to their questions.
Understanding the TOC [Theory of Constraints] and application of the LTP [Logical Thinking Process] are valuable additions to your toolbox, because they unlock the steps for designing and implementing a sustainable and effective security and compliance control environment. A strategic approach is essential. However, crafting an excellent strategy while pursuing goals that are unclear, lack alignment or are the wrong goals altogether is like bailing water from a boat that has a hole in the bottom. Not only is the process counterproductive and wasteful, it can also be very demoralizing.
We’ve done both the bailing and repair for you with a “navigational chart” that pinpoints the best course to take to define goals and objectives for your security and compliance strategy and program — and the necessary conditions to attain them. Having a chart with the best proven strategies will help your organization avoid unintended consequences, which can be cataclysmic to a security program. The container ship Ever Given’s misfortunate accident in the Suez Canal is a timely metaphor for the importance of considering unintended or unexpected consequences. Such consequences can occur when design, strategy and planning lack foresight and coordination.
Cargo ship Ever Given being unlodged from the banks of the Suez Canal in March 2021.
The Suez Canal was created to accommodate shipping traffic between Port Said on the Mediterranean Sea and Suez on the Red Sea. In 2015, engineers widened the canal in certain sections for two-lane traffic and for the increasing size and weight of container ships. In the past 15 years, the size and weight of container ships has doubled — increasing container capacity from about 10,000 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) to as many as 25,000 TEUs. In March 2021, one of the largest ships in the world, the Ever Given, became lodged sideways in the canal for six days and four hours, stalling tens of billions of dollars in trading per day.
Several converging factors caused the accident:
1) Human error and poor communication and coordination12
2) Limited regulation and/or coordination between the shipping industry and Suez Canal officials during the time container ships grew significantly in size13
3) A narrow section of the canal where the Ever Given — one of the longest ships in service — became wedged was not widened during the 2015 Egyptian canal redevelopment project
4) Hydrodynamics: Large container ships in shallow, narrow canals have a smaller gap between the hull, canal walls and canal floor, increasing the bank and squatting effects, making ships less maneuverable14
5) A dust storm and high winds apparently impacted visibility and maneuverability
What could planners have foreseen and implemented to avoid that disaster? Were unintended consequences at play? What regulations could have helped? Was there advanced warning, or was it a black swan event, unpredictable beyond what is normally expected of a situation with potential severity “characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight?”15
“The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.”
In 2015, The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised the following concerns about the shipping industry:17
- Container lines typically are not consulting regulatory, government or shipping agencies before building larger container ships
- Appropriate discussion forums are needed “between liners and transport stakeholders … including governments, regulators, port authorities and all interested constituents … to facilitate an exchange of views, an understanding of objectives and plans, and ultimately better coordination”
- Attention is needed on “insurability of mega-ships and the costs of potential salvage in case of accidents”
- Data is showing the potential cost savings to carriers as “fairly marginal,” while infrastructure upsizing costs “could be phenomenal”
- Many ports and countries “accidentally or on purpose, encouraged the development of mega-ships”
- Countries and ports “frequently make decisions that seem positive on an individual level, but could be detrimental at a collective level,” and an extensive cost/benefit analysis is needed
Failure to deal with constraints
When completed in 1869, the Suez Canal was 102 miles long, 26 feet deep and 200 feet wide at the narrowest point, with maximum capacity for a loaded ship weighing 5,000 tons. The canal was later expanded to 120 miles long, 79 feet deep and 656 feet wide at its narrowest point, with maximum capacity for a ship weighing 240,000 tons. The 1,312-ft Ever Given is significantly longer than the canal is wide and became stuck where the canal is about 985 feet wide.
The Ever Given fiasco shows how important it is to pinpoint constraints in a design. This is particularly relevant today at a time of rapid evolution and complexity with digital transformation. All possible constraints (based on a risk assessment) need to be considered when building security frameworks. After the fiasco, the Egyptian government acknowledged the lack of foresight and, in May 2021, announced plans to widen and deepen the canal in the stretch where the Ever Given lodged.
11 Robert K. Merton, “The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action,” American Sociological Review, 1936, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2084615
12Vivian Yee and James Gianz, “How One of the World’s Biggest Ships Jammed the Suez Canal,” The New York Times, Jul 17, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/17/world/middleeast/suez-canal-stuck-ship-ever-given.html
13 The Impact of Mega-Ships, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Transport Forum, 2015, https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/15cspa_mega-ships.pdf
14 Marc Vantorre, et. al., “Maneuvering in Shallow and Confined Water,” Encyclopedia of Maritime and Offshore Engineering, Apr 20, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118476406.emoe006
15 “What is a Black Swan?” Investopedia, Mar 22, 2021, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp#
16 “The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry,” SAP Community Blogs, 2010, https://blogs.sap.com/2010/01/07/the-best-laid-plans-of-mice-and-men-often-go-awry/
17 The Impact of Mega-Ships, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
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